For those involved in corporate strategy and scenario planning - here is an interesting idea to debate.  Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard www.niallferguson.org, is of the view that Malthus’ theory of population control due to limits in the food supply (Principle of Population), was not, as we have supposed, wrong.  Far from breaking free of the problem of feeding growing populations,  the countries of the world have been in the upswing of the feast/famine cycle for the last 250 years;  but we are all due to go into a downswing.

The population of the world, he says,  is due to pass the 8bn mark by around 2025, and 9bn by 2050; but the ability of world food production to keep pace is questionable.  Currently food yeilds are 3 tons per hectare, but to feed even 8bn people yeilds will need to be 4 tons per hectare.   Meanwhile,  a number of factors are conspiring to put a ceiling on food production - including low prices and a switch in land use to bio-fuels.   Whilst one swallow does not make a summer, the IMF have recorded a 23% rise in world food prices over the last 18months.  In the UK food inflation was 4.8% in June compared to overal inflation of 2.4%, and the forecast trend is even greater due to the recent bad weather - abnormal factor or long-term trend?  

So the debate to have,  is what effect would this have on consumer demand, corporate social responsibility and world trade?  And what would that mean for your market and organization?  Making poverty history may need a little more effort and innovation than wearing a wrist band.